Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS plays at various salary ranges for the coming week’s golf tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.
Many will complain that the offseason in golf is too short, but the two-week break feels like an eternity for us true golf fans (at least those of us that like to play DFS and bet on tournaments each week). The new season kicks off in wine country, as Silverado Resort and Spa is located in Napa Valley, California. We don’t have the strongest field lined up this week, but there are some good names up top and plenty of up-and-comers looking to make a name for themselves on the PGA Tour.
The North Course at Silverado is a Par 72 that measures 7,123 yards. On a par-adjusted basis, this is one of the shortest courses on tour. While it’s not the easiest, it should still play well under par. The winner is typically in the 17 to 21-under par range and it seems like golfers get better and better with each passing year. Barring some extreme wind that’s not currently in the forecast, this will be one of the many birdie-fests during the spring season.
We have quite the mix of grass types in play this week. The fairways feature a mix of bermuda and poa annua, the rough features Kentucky bluegrass, and the greens have a mix of bentgrass and poa annua. The greens themselves are average in size (6,200 square feet) and fairly easy to hit on average (over 70% greens in regulation). The four easiest holes are the four par fives and golfers will need to take advantage if they want to be in contention on Sunday.
In terms of width, these are some of the most narrow fairways on the PGA Tour (27 yards wide on average). They are tough to hit, but the rough is playable if you have an angle into the green. The biggest penalty for being wide off the tee is having to deal with the trees that line the fairways. In the past, we’ve seen a lot of good total drivers succeed here (Brendan Steele and Emiliano Grillo come to mind).
While I am certainly placing an emphasis on ball striking and on bent/poa putting, there are a lot of Korn Ferry Tour graduates that have very few starts on the PGA Tour. If you are building strictly based on stats, you’ll overlook a lot of good plays. If you are playing DFS or betting on the Italian Open or the LIV Golf Invitational in Chicago, I’ll have you covered with some content that will be out later in the week.
These are plays that I feel confident using in both cash games and tournaments.
SG: OTT — 5 Total Driving — 16 SG: APP — 41 BOB % — 11 SG: Putting (Bent/Poa) — 52 Noto’s Rating — 83.0
I was hesitant to target Pendrith on non-bomber tracks down the stretch of last season, but he proved that he can play on all types of tracks. After returning from injury, he rattled off four top 15 finishes in five starts. He gained at least two strokes off the tee in all five of those events and also flashed some upside with the irons (+6.1, +3.5, and +4.9 on approach). With four par fives on the scorecard this week, he should have plenty of chances to score. Even though this isn’t a bomber’s paradise, Cameron Champ showed that longer hitters can win here.
SG: OTT — 2 Total Driving — 10 SG: APP — 15 BOB % — 81 SG: Putting (Bent/Poa) — 126 Noto’s Rating — 73.4
Steele was a popular target in the last few months of the season, as he had some of the best ball striking numbers of anyone on tour. There was one stretch where he gained at least seven strokes ball striking (off the tee + approach) in four of five events. He’s an elite total driver of the ball, the irons have been heating up, and he clearly has a great track record at Silverado. He’s made eight straight cuts here and won this event in back-to-back years. We are getting a combination of good form and good course history at a very reasonable price point.
SG: OTT — 12 Total Driving — 12 SG: APP — 19 BOB % — 52 SG: Putting (Bent/Poa) — 21 Noto’s Rating — 78.4
My model has loved Kirk for quite some time now. There was a stretch during last season where he gained strokes off the tee in 17 straight events. He’s not a bomber by any means, but consistently gains off the tee due to his accuracy. The irons weren’t great in his final two events of last season, but they are a strength of his if you zoom out and look at the last year of play. On top of that, he’s one of the absolute best around the green and is an above-average putter on bent/poa surfaces.
SG: OTT — 73 Total Driving — 90 SG: APP — 5 BOB % — 60 SG: Putting (Bent/Poa) — 11 Noto’s Rating — 73.0
Hubbard had a very up and down season — he lost his tour card, he played great on the Korn Ferry Tour, and then ultimately put together a solid run on the PGA Tour to get his card back. That has to be a big weight lifted off the shoulders of this journeyman. He’s always been known for his ability to roll the rock, but what encourages me for this week is his recent ball striking. He’s gained at least 1.8 strokes on the field in four of his last five starts. He has a good track record in Florida and has two top 20 finishes here in his last three appearances.
These are lower-owned plays that are best suited for tournaments.
SG: OTT — 7 Total Driving — 2 SG: APP — 53 BOB % — 5 SG: Putting (Bent/Poa) — 61 Noto’s Rating — 74.5
Grillo might catch a little steam this week, but I’m hoping the hefty price tag will keep ownership at bay. It’s hard to believe that he has been on the PGA Tour for seven years and it’s even harder to believe that his first win came early in his rookie season. He won this event back in 2015 and has been searching for his second win ever since. Perhaps he can draw on that memory and parlay that into something special this week. He’s one of the best in the field off the tee, he has flashed upside with his irons recently, and his putter is on fire right now.
SG: OTT — N/A Total Driving — N/A SG: APP — N/A BOB % — N/A SG: Putting (Bent/Poa) — N/A Noto’s Rating — 76.5
T-Mont is one of the many Korn Ferry Tour graduates on my radar this week. He’s never played this event and has only played in a couple of PGA Tour events, but he is incredibly talented and coming off an amazing stretch of golf to end last season. In seven of his last eight starts on the Korn Ferry Tour, he racked up top 10 finishes. He went to UNLV and lives on the West Coast, so he should certainly feel comfortable playing in California. In fact, his best finish on the PGA Tour was at the Farmers Insurance Open, which is obviously held at Torrey Pines.
SG: OTT — N/A Total Driving — N/A SG: APP — N/A BOB % — N/A SG: Putting (Bent/Poa) — N/A Noto’s Rating — 72.5
It will be interesting to see how much buzz Suh gets this week after winning the Korn Ferry Tour Championship a few weeks ago. He was one of the biggest prospects coming out of college, but like many, he didn’t earn his tour card right away. He had to grind to make it on the PGA Tour and that’s exactly what he did. He played his college golf at USC and currently lives in Las Vegas, so he should have plenty of experience playing in California. Unlike most KFT graduates, he played in this event last season and made the cut (T58).
SG: OTT — 32 Total Driving — 66 SG: APP — 45 BOB % — 74 SG: Putting (Bent/Poa) — 6 Noto’s Rating — 67.8
While I do question the true upside of Rodgers at this point, he seems to be one of the safest value plays on the slate this week. He played his college golf at Stanford and has always played his best golf on the West Coast. This is his time to shine. There isn’t a ton that stands out when looking at his statistics, but he’s above field average off the tee and on approach and he’s an elite putter. More importantly, he’s made five straight cuts at this event including a T6 here last year.
To compare odds across all of the major sportsbooks, check out the Scores and Odds golf page.
This week: 10 units in play
These odds were found at Scores and Odds and were available as of Tuesday afternoon.
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS plays at various salary ranges for the coming week’s golf tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.
Many will complain that the offseason in golf is too short, but the two-week break feels like an eternity for us true golf fans (at least those of us that like to play DFS and bet on tournaments each week). The new season kicks off in wine country, as Silverado Resort and Spa is located in Napa Valley, California. We don’t have the strongest field lined up this week, but there are some good names up top and plenty of up-and-comers looking to make a name for themselves on the PGA Tour.
The North Course at Silverado is a Par 72 that measures 7,123 yards. On a par-adjusted basis, this is one of the shortest courses on tour. While it’s not the easiest, it should still play well under par. The winner is typically in the 17 to 21-under par range and it seems like golfers get better and better with each passing year. Barring some extreme wind that’s not currently in the forecast, this will be one of the many birdie-fests during the spring season.
We have quite the mix of grass types in play this week. The fairways feature a mix of bermuda and poa annua, the rough features Kentucky bluegrass, and the greens have a mix of bentgrass and poa annua. The greens themselves are average in size (6,200 square feet) and fairly easy to hit on average (over 70% greens in regulation). The four easiest holes are the four par fives and golfers will need to take advantage if they want to be in contention on Sunday.
In terms of width, these are some of the most narrow fairways on the PGA Tour (27 yards wide on average). They are tough to hit, but the rough is playable if you have an angle into the green. The biggest penalty for being wide off the tee is having to deal with the trees that line the fairways. In the past, we’ve seen a lot of good total drivers succeed here (Brendan Steele and Emiliano Grillo come to mind).
While I am certainly placing an emphasis on ball striking and on bent/poa putting, there are a lot of Korn Ferry Tour graduates that have very few starts on the PGA Tour. If you are building strictly based on stats, you’ll overlook a lot of good plays. If you are playing DFS or betting on the Italian Open or the LIV Golf Invitational in Chicago, I’ll have you covered with some content that will be out later in the week.
These are plays that I feel confident using in both cash games and tournaments.
Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS , thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA ) awards.
Be sure to click through our links and use our exclusive promo codes to receive the industry's best sign-up bonuses, including free access to our premium content.
RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN).